Synopsis
Pankaj Pandey, Head – Research at ICICIdirect, said he remains constructive on Nifty50 and Sensex, expecting them to trade with positive bias in the run-up to the Union Budget.
NEW DELHI: With Union Budget 2022 less than three weeks away, an ETMarkets poll of a dozen brokerages suggest the ongoing pre-Budget rally on Dalal Street could continue and record highs for benchmarks Sensex and Nifty50 are likely by Budget. They may consolidate if third quarter earnings of banks and IT firms fail to impress Street, analysts said.
Pankaj Pandey, Head – Research at ICICIdirect, said he remains constructive on Nifty50 and Sensex, expecting them to trade with positive bias in the run-up to the Union Budget. “Nifty50 is expected to challenge its life highs of 18,604 (Sensex: 62,245),” he said.
Ajit Mishra, VP- Research at Religare Broking, sees Sensex at 62,500 and Nifty50 at 18,700. Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities, sees Nifty50 and Sensex making an attempt to reach their all-time highs and even breach them, “though this seems difficult”.
Benchmark indices have reversed most of the 11 per cent correction seen during November-December and are now trading just 3 per cent lower than their peaks seen in October 2021. Dhananjay Sinha, MD & Chief Strategist, JM Financial Institutional Securities, said the markets are pricing in a positive guidance from the Budget and it is likely that ahead of the Budget the momentum in the market may continue.
This is even as Sinha noted that the relevance of the Budget has gotten diluted significantly over the years as a large part of government policies are announced outside of it. “Most indirect tax decisions are also outside of the budget,” he noted.
Shiv Chanani, Head of Research at Elara Securities India, said the market would be guided by developments on Omicron variant and liquidity scenario, and also third quarter earnings, particularly of heavyweights like IT services and banks.
Gaurav Garg, Head of Research at CapitalVia Global Research, is expecting Nifty50 to hold on to the important support of 17,400-17,500 and sees Sensex holding 59,000-59,200.
“As the result season has kicked off, I expect the season to be better than the previous one led by IT majors and financial services. FIIs have also turned net buyers in the January month, as we have entered pre-Budget rally. I expect the Nifty50 to touch 18,300 ahead of the Budget,” he said.
A few analysts also see range-bound movements ahead. Among them is Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.
The market has done well in the last 3-4 trading weeks and the indices are up 10 per cent, he said adding that the market has been trading generously despite consolidation in global markets.
“The 2022 Budget is unlikely to have a long-term effect on the market since most of the economic and political measures will be taken outside the forum. However, given the market, political and economic situation, we can anticipate some consolidation in the short-term due to uncertainty over fiscal position and populist measures to be announced,” he said.
Amar Ambani of YES Securities sees Nifty50 hovering around 18,000 levels.
Aditya Sood, Fund Manager, InCred PMS, said since Nifty50 has seen a sharp pullback in the first week of 2022, he expects the market to be range-bound, considering that it is in the midst of the earning season and is expecting a rate hike soon.
